Vol 1 | No. 001

Good Morning, and welcome to the very first issue of The Stockyard. Every week we’ll be covering the biggest stories shaping the markets, the economy, and your money. Our goal is to inform reader about the world of finance whether you’re deep into the markets or just trying to better understand what’s happening around you. This newsletter is built to keep you informed without the headache all the finance jargon, noise, or panic can cause.

In this issue we will break down several key stories the market, explain why they matter, and shine a light on what it could mean for you. No posers, no bias, no noise. Pure, honest, and straightforward financial coverage designed to help you stay ahead.

This week, one major story is overshadowing nearly everything else. The ongoing US-Iran conflict, and the growing discussion around a possible peace deal? Whether you’ve been following this story closely or just now hearing about it, there’s a good chance it’s already affecting your money. Raising gas prices, fluctuating markets, and diminishing savings.

Let’s break it all down.

Here’s a connection people tend to miss, the US-Iran conflict has been keeping oil prices hostage since it began in February. Oil was trading near $108/barrel just weeks ago. Today, as peace deal rumors picked up traction, oil dropped toward $98/barrel and markets rallied hard on the news.

Now why does this matter to you? Oil is the backbone of the global economy. when oil is expensive, it costs more to ship goods, fuel your car, heat your home, and manufacture just about everything. This feeds right into inflation, the same inflation that’s been keeping the Fed from cutting interest rates. A peace deal would bring oil price down and simultaneously be one of the most significant inflations buffers in 2026. On the other hand, if talks breakdown, expect oil and gas prices to go right back up.

Takeaway: Watch oil prices as a real-time inflation indicator. If WTI crude (US Standard benchmark) stays below $95, its a good sign that inflation pressures are easing. If it stays at $105, expect the prices to stay sticky.

Tech giants Nvidia reported earnings this week and the numbers were eye popping. Posting $81.6 billion in revenue for the quarter, up 85% from a year ago. To put this into perspective, that’s more revenue in just THREE months than most countries produce in GDP a year.

Now what’s driving all of this? AI Infrastructure. Companies across the world are spending massively to build out AI data center, and Nvidia makes the chips powering this whole operation. On data center revenue alone Nvidia brought in $75.2 billion, up 92%. When they beat earnings like this, it tells you that the AI spending boom is very much still alive. S&P 500 or QQQ are worth a look if you want to own AI stock.

Takeaway: Nvidia’s homerun earnings signal that AI Investment is accelerating, not slowing down. Maybe the bubble isn’t bursting yet. If you’re not already invested in the broader market, this is a reminder of what you’re sitting out of.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) closed at a record high today, and the S&P 500 is on track for its eighth consecutive weekly gain. Now on the surface layer this sounds like amazing news, however underneath there’s a much more complicated truth.

Treasury yields (the interest rate the US gov. pays when it borrows money) have been spiking hard. The 10-year Treasury hit 4.59% and the 30-year hit 5.12% both multi-year highs. Now when yields increase, it usually means investors are nervous and uncertain about the inflation or government debt, and this can cause create headwinds for stocks. The market is essentially piggybacking off the Iran deal optimism while bond investors are flashing big red warning signs. Volatility has been elevated, meaning prices are swinging more than usual.

Takeaway: Although all-time highs are exciting, pay attention to the bond yields. When the 30-year Treasury yield is above 5%, it’s a sign that borrowing costs across the entire economy (mortgages, car loans, credit cards) are staying high for longer.

Now there is a silver lining in all this bond market turbulence. If you’re saving for retirement, higher-yields mean better returns on safe investments. Certificates if Deposit (CDs) and money market accounts are now paying returns they haven’t seen in years. The 30-year treasury yield being above 5% also means newly issued bonds are paying more than anything issued during the low-rate ear of 2020-2022.

If you’re around 10-15 years from retiring, this is worth paying attention to. A common strategy is gradually shifting some of your portfolio from stocks into bonds as you get closer to that golden age. An better yet, those bonds are actually paying a meaningful return right now. For younger investors who are maybe a couple decades away from retirement, stay heavy in stocks. Times is definitely on your side and the compounding growth of equities will outperform bonds over a long period of time.

Takeaway: Go check what your savings account or CD is paying right now. If yours is under 4% you’re leaving money on the table. A few high-yield savings accounts and short -term CDs out there are currently offering higher rates.

Today marks the early days of Kevin Warsh’s tenure as the new Federal Reserve Chair, confirmed by the Senate just this week. Warsh will inherit one of the trickiest inflation climates in recent history. The Fed has held rates steady while bond markets are pricing in the possibility of a rate hike, not a cut. by late 2026.

In simple terms, the Fed controls short-term interest rates, which affect things like your savings account and variable-rate credit card. But the bond market controls long-term rates, which affect mortgages and business loans. As of now these two are moving in opposite directions, creating real uncertainty. The June 17th Fed meeting will be the first major test for Warsh, and markets will be watching every word. Meanwhile peace talks are ongoing between US and Iran, a deal would take significant pressure off inflation and potentially give the Fed room to breathe.

Takeaway: If you have a variable-rate loan, a credit card balance, an adjustable-rate mortgage, or a HELOC, now is good time to look at locking in a fixed rate before the Fed’s next move.

Every day markets are spooked by the news hitting the headlines. A war, an earnings miss, a Fed comment. New investors/traders often make the same mistake they panic and sell. Here’s a simple framework to sue whenever something big hits the news:

STEP 1- Ask yourself is this temporary or structural? Oil spiking because of a war is temporary. A structural shift takes years to play out. Like new technology disrupting the industry.

STEP 2- Ask if this changes the fundamentals of what you own. If you own S&P 500 index fund for example, a single geopolitical event rarely changes the long-term upside of the fund.

STEP 3- Check you time horizon. If you won’t need this money for 10+ years, a 5% drop in the market is noise. If you need it in 2 years, that’s a different conversation all together.

Takeaway: Before you react to any market news, run through these three questions. Most of the time, the right answer is to do NOTHING and let your plan work.

Weekend Recap + Monday Preview

This week in review: The Market survived a volatile week with many headlines fighting for the front cover. The S&P 500 finished up for the week despite the turbulence. The big takeaway: geopolitical and the bond market are calling the shots right now more than corporate earnings.

What to watch Monday:

What a noisy week! The fundamentals remain the same. Have a great weekend, see you Monday.